In voting methods, tactical voting (or strategic voting, sophisticated voting or insincere voting) occurs in elections with more than two candidates, when a voter supports another candidate more strongly than their sincere preference in order to prevent an undesirable outcome.(Farquharson)
According to tactical.voting, if everyone is voting against Tory, the extreme result is going to be looking like this:
For the FX market, a result of Tory not obtaining the majority or Labour winning will give chance to see some serious volatilities for GBP/USD and GBP/EUR. (Go to Charts below)
By 10:00PM the exit poll starts, Sky, ITV and the BBC have jointly commissioned the snap survey of thousands of voters as they leave polling stations in 144 constituencies across England, Scotland and Wales.
Exit polls are not always right but they can give an early look at the bigger picture. In 2017, the exit poll said the Tories would be the largest party but would fail to gain a majority. Theresa May was left with a hung parliament.
Below is the Hour-by-Hour Guide to How the Results Come In published by Bloomberg (subscribe to their monthly service here to read the full article)
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A guide to tactical voting in today’s election: try our tool for the realist view
The UK’s First Past The Post electoral system means that a huge number of people live in constituencies in which the party they like best has very little chance of actually winning.
Tactical voting, put simply, means that individuals cast their vote for a candidate they wouldn’t normally support to stop an undesired candidate from winning.
These sites, however, often disagree with each other, can be fairly opaque in how they make their recommendations and seem to neglect the idea that the other side might be voting tactically too.
This can often lead to a certain amount of confusion and romanticism when interpreting the extent to which tactical voting will make a difference.
With the candidate lists confirmed for the 2019 general election, we’ve put together our own – realistic – tactical voting interactive to give you a clearer picture of whether it could affect your seat. Subscribe below to get your personal recommendation.
Tactical voting guide 2019: the 50 seats where it is vital to keep the Tories out
One of Britain’s leading pollsters identifies the best choices for Remain voters at key general election battlegrounds
There is a two million majority against Boris Johnson’s Brexit plans – but voters need to think tactically in target seats. Illustration: The Observer
On current trends, voters will deliver a contradictory verdict on Thursday night. The Conservatives are on course for an overall majority in parliament – but most voters will back parties that want to block an early Brexit. If turnout is similar to last time, the 14 to 15 million who will support the Conservatives or Brexit party will be outnumbered by the 16 to 17 million who will vote Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, SNP or Plaid Cymru.
Tactical voting is not new, but it has a special significance this week. If it happens in enough constituencies, it can ensure that the two-million majority opposed to Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan is reflected in the new House of Commons.
The map below shows 50 seats where tactical voting could keep the Conservatives out. Most tactical voting websites draw on one or two sets of polling data, which risk ignoring the specific circumstances of individual constituencies. The guide draws on a wider range of information – detailed big-sample national polls, but also constituency surveys (including those reported week by week in the Observer), past election results and local activity, such as the recent student registration drives in some key seats (one is Brunel University, in Johnson’s own constituency, Uxbridge).
The Observer view on who to vote for in the general election
Read more The three latest constituency surveys underline the potential impact of tactical voting. Putney, Southport and Guildford all elected Conservative MPs last time, despite voting heavily to remain in the 2016 referendum. Currently, the Conservatives lead Labour in Putney (by 3%) and Southport (by 8%). Guildford is almost neck-and-neck between the Lib Dems (41%) and the Conservatives (40%). Given margins of error on local surveys with samples of 500, all three seats are in play. Enough tactical votes for Labour in Putney and Southport, and the Lib Dems in Guildford, could defeat the Tories in all three seats.