August 22, 2019 at 03:50AM The FOMC minutes served up a jolt to the fragile balance between monetary policy and risk trends this past session, but anticipation for the upcoming PMI run […]
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Neither Dollar Nor S&P 500 Fazed by Trump Remarks Recession May be Necessary
August 21, 2019 at 04:07AM President Trump has graduated beyond the saying that ‘trade wars are good and easy to win’. Flirting with an unsteady market, he signaled Tuesday that to inflict […]
S&P 500 Third Biggest Bullish Gap This Year Doesn’t Resolve Key Themes or Fear
August 20, 2019 at 03:00AM Risk assets opened the week with an impressive gap higher, but it would be more than premature to assign conviction to this bounce. With lingering concerns and […]
Fundamental Trading Forecast: Trade Wars, Recession, Fed Trouble – The Fed Symposium’s Pick
August 19, 2019 at 10:24PM The traditional economic docket for high-level data releases this week is fairly light, but that doesn’t account for the deepening concern around three critical fundamental themes. Continue […]
Euro Breakdown Potential Not as Extreme as EURUSD May Propose
August 17, 2019 at 05:00AM Looking to the world’s most liquid currency cross – EURUSD – we find the FX market on the verge of a technical tidal change with multi-year lows […]
Will Dow and EURUSD Range Or Break as Trade War and Recession Fears Linger?
August 17, 2019 at 02:50AM We are due scheduled fundamental catalysts to the most pressing fundamental themes for the global markets, while speculative fear threatens its own indigestion. Is market-based recession fear […]
Gold Prices Are the Best Haven to Yield Curve-Based Recession Fears
August 16, 2019 at 04:45AM The inverted US yield curve is only one point of concern in the state of global government bond yields. Recession risks are raising concerns over the state […]
S&P 500 Outlook Steadies Despite Recession Fears, EURUSD Tumble Not a Data Move
August 16, 2019 at 02:32AM Risk assets managed to pullback from the brink of self-reinforcing selling this past session, though the fundamental spark that set the tumble into motion in the first […]
Dow Forecast Links to Recession Fears Bubbling in Bonds and Yield Curve
August 15, 2019 at 02:34AM The US yield curve was this past session’s top theme amongst traders which is troubling given the implications it carries for fears of a recession and association […]
Dow and Yuan Rally, Yen and Gold Tumble as Trump Stirs Trade Wars Again
August 14, 2019 at 03:24AM Finally, a rebound in risk assets this past session. The White House backed off on its most aggressive trade wars escalation to date Tuesday, but is this […]
S&P 500 Retreats and VIX Rises as Trade War Fears Remain Front and Center
August 13, 2019 at 03:19AM Risk benchmarks opened to another week with a gap lower, but this time there was a USDCNH systemic break to base fear around. It seems that sentiment […]
Fundamental Trading Forecast – Would Trump Act to Devalue the Dollar in Trade Wars?
August 13, 2019 at 12:19AM If we are looking for any hidden threats to global market stability as this week progresses, the first place to keep tabs remains the situation with trade […]
Dollar Eases as Trump Maintains Pressure, Trade Wars Vs Seasonal Gravity Ahead
August 10, 2019 at 03:14AM The pull of seasonal liquidity fade is strong, but will it overpower a relentless pressure from the Trump administration to charge volatility? Read on to learn what […]
Gold Prices Charge Multi-Year Highs, Ignore Contrarian Sentiment Signals
August 09, 2019 at 11:00PM There is good reason to doubt many of the tentative trends developing across the financial system in ‘risk’ assets or Dollar pairs as conviction is uneven. But […]
S&P 500 Charges as Complacency Fights Back Trade Wars, Frustrating Trump on Dollar
August 09, 2019 at 03:09AM Trade wars may be still smoking, but the market only deals with what is currently on fire. In the absence of fallout, speculative appetite prevails. Yet, that […]
Traders Shift Weight from Elevated VIX to S&P 500 Trendline
August 08, 2019 at 04:03AM Trade war headlines are starting to lose their drive over risk assets, and speculators are taking notice. Panic may return at any time but the buy-the-dip mentality […]
Doubt that S&P 500 Dip Buying, Monitor Both USDCNH and VIX Closely
August 07, 2019 at 04:02AM Risk aversion has hit a speed gap and speculative appetite has rushed in to take advantage. As broad as the bounce may be, traders should not get […]
Dow and Dollar Tumble as China Let’s Yuan Dive, Escalation Inevitable
August 06, 2019 at 03:15AM Trade wars are escalating and risk trends are suffering. With US-based indices taking a tumble, the seemingly unflappable complacency looks at-risk of collapse. Yet, my true concern […]
Webinar: Fundamental Trading Forecast – Trade Wars Threatens Growth and Overwhelms Central Banks
August 05, 2019 at 09:54PM There is little doubting the top fundamental theme given the state of the global markets to open this new trading week. Trade wars was front and center […]
Dollar Hits a 2-Year High and Then Stumbles – Pause Or True Reversal?
August 04, 2019 at 10:00AM Between headlines of a Fed rate hike and President Trump upping the ante in the US trade war with China, the Dollar would see a bullish breakout […]
Beware a S&P 500 and Dollar Tumble as Trade Wars Escalate
August 03, 2019 at 03:38AM This past week ended in a precious position: the markets were starting to gain traction on a reversal in risk trends and the principal threats were only […]
S&P 500 and Dollar Hit as Trump Escalates Trade Wars Day After Fed Volatility
August 02, 2019 at 06:41AM The market’s attention shifted violently from monetary policy shortcomings and a mild sense of concern over economic health to sheer trade war pain this past session. Traders […]
Key Charts to Watch as Trump Escalates the US-China Trade War
August 01, 2019 at 08:32PM In a session that was recovering from the previous day’s FOMC rate decision with a cut and questions about the future, US President Donald Trump delivered a […]
Fed’s Powell Shakes the Dow and Dollar as Markets Confused on Next Steps
August 01, 2019 at 02:15AM Fed rate decision often leave the markets a little shell-shocked on what the future holds, thanks largely to heavy speculation. After the central bank’s cut this past […]
Fed Focus Takes Over as Dollar and Global Risk Expect at Least a 25bp Cut
July 31, 2019 at 03:15AM The market’s attention is squarely on the Federal Reserve rate decision Wednesday afternoon. Will this holdout of optimism and policy rebalance cave to the speculative pressure of […]
Fed Anticipation Extend’s Longest Dollar Run in Year, Pound Tumbles on Brexit Warning
July 30, 2019 at 04:08AM There is an unease that is easy to spot in the global markets. Risk trends are hampered by anticipation of the Fed decision on Wednesday, but there […]
British Pound Hits Two-Year Low as Speculative Position Also Hits Extreme
July 27, 2019 at 11:00PM After two weeks of consolidation at multi-year lows, GBPUSD would ultimately earn a bearish break on its short-term wedge. It seems another easy shove to a well-worn […]
Dollar Versus Gold Trends as Trump Warns on Trade War, FOMC Decision Approaches
July 27, 2019 at 03:04AM Growth as a driving fundamental wind – particularly for Dollar bulls – has passed with the weekend liquidity drain. A Fed decision and provocative remarks on Trade […]
GBPUSD May Be the Best Major to Highlight a Weak US GDP
July 26, 2019 at 04:17AM The Dollar has considerable potential for volatility resulting from the 2Q US GDP release. However, a bullish build up on the theme, weekend liquidity, FOMC anticipation and […]
EURUSD Round Two Moving Past ECB Onto US GDP
July 26, 2019 at 03:42AM The ECB rate decision proved quite market-moving for EURUSD, but its bearing confounded typical expectations. Will Friday’s US 2Q GDP offer a more direct bearing for the […]
EURUSD and EURCHF In the ECB Rate Decision Crosshairs
July 25, 2019 at 04:55AM The ECB rate decision is leveraged with serious fundamental speculation with EURUSD stationed on the ledge of a three-month range that tips into two-year lows. Yet, if […]
Dollar Run Slows Despite Growth Skew, Euro Readies for the ECB
July 25, 2019 at 04:00AM Is the US truly recession proof should the global economy continue to slow? What would a clearly dovish ECB earn from an already deflated Euro? Continue Reading… […]
Dollar Rallies After IMF’s Growth Upgrade, Pound Steadfast After New PM Announced
July 24, 2019 at 02:46AM The ‘growth’ theme seemed to catch traction earlier than expected this week. With July PMIs and the US 2Q GDP ahead, the IMF decided to downgrade its […]
Pound Awaits New PM, Euro the ECB and Dollar a Distant Fed Decision
July 23, 2019 at 04:54AM On the one hand, there is event risk on the horizon that qualifies as possible inducement of ‘severe volatility’: ECB decision, US GDP, ECB, etc. Then there […]
Australian Dollar: Is This a True Bullish Reversal?
July 20, 2019 at 05:00PM AUDUSD triggered one of the most recognizable reversal patterns in the technical scales this past week: an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. But is this a spark that can […]
Expect More Dollar and Dow Volatility on Fed Speculation, Trade Wars, US GDP
July 20, 2019 at 04:12AM A mere anticipation for Friday’s US 2Q GDP release or isolated Euro response to the ECB rate decision ahead is no longer the easy course to expect […]
EURUSD At the Crossroads of Most Critical Volatility Lines
July 20, 2019 at 02:09AM There are a host of fundamental themes converging over the coming week with a high probability of volatility along each line. It just so happens that most […]
Dollar Tumbles as 50bp Fed Cut Baked In But Beware EURUSD, AUDUSD Trades
July 19, 2019 at 05:47AM Trade wars and growth forecasts continued to form an uneven path for the markets, but speculative drive seems to have taken a significant tug in attention. A […]
S&P 500 Retreat May Accelerate on NFLX, IMF Gives Trump Dollar Ammo
July 18, 2019 at 02:35AM US earnings may once again take the tiller for global sentiment, but this time around it is hitting both systemic fears and general risk appetite. Meanwhile, trade […]
Dow Hits Record High on Most Reserved Activity Since December 2017
July 16, 2019 at 05:26AM Where most of the markets and currencies are struggling to carry a clear move one week to the next, the British Pound proves consistently the exception to […]
Dollar Rallies as Euro and Pound Retreat, Data Versus Systemic Themes
July 17, 2019 at 04:27AM US indices just started to issues technical signals to suggest a more serious turn may catch traction, but a fundamental catalyst is still unsecured. Meanwhile, the FX […]
Dow Hits Record High on Most Reserved Activity Since December 2017
July 16, 2019 at 04:42AM The Dow has posted yet another record high and yet it still manages to offer up no enthusiasm in the anticipation of its higher probability course. Quiet […]
S&P 500 Record High and Gold Builds Breakout Pressure Under Growth, Trade Wars
July 16, 2019 at 03:19AM The S&P 500 notched yet another record high to start this new trading week, but the volume and progress on the day did little to alleviate doubts. […]
Dollar Faces Plenty of Volatility, But Clear Trend is Another Matter…
July 14, 2019 at 05:00AM The Dollar’s recovery attempt came to an abrupt halt this past week following heavily-circulated Fed headlines. Now imbued with greater volatility in news fixation, what can we […]
AUDUSD Preps a Clean Reversal Pattern but Dollar, China GDP Complicate
July 13, 2019 at 04:36AM There is a provocative inverse head-and-shoulders set for AUDUSD. A pattern ubiquitous with charged reversals but conditions and similarly disrupted patterns should throttle our anticipation for more […]
Dow’s Record Highs and Gold’s Congestion Shift from Fed Hopes to Growth, Trade Fears
July 13, 2019 at 04:03AM The markets have made a shrine to the Fed’s dovish policy shift in the form of the Dow’s record highs. Unfortunately for the bulls, this theme […]
Dow Hits a Record High, So Why Didn’t the S&P 500, Nasdaq or Russell 2000?
July 12, 2019 at 05:15AM The Dow hit a record high this past session having cleared 27,000. Taken alone, this would seem a reassuring development, but the uneven performance of other US […]
Dollar Tumble Halted by CPI, Dow Ignores Fresh Trade War Threats Beyond US-China
July 12, 2019 at 03:00AM Fed Chairman Powell kept the drum beat for a dovish policy shift to support speculative interest, but it may have been the ECB’s insights that truly move […]
USDJPY and Gold Show What Fed Support Can Truly Offer Market
July 11, 2019 at 05:20AM Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the FOMC minutes have stirred the market, but what direct implications carry more weight: a deflated Dollar premium or a boost to […]
Dollar Drop More Reliable than S&P 500 Record High as Fed Readies Rate Cut
July 11, 2019 at 04:27AM The first day of Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony set dovish convictions at ease with a boost to risk trends and a retreat n the Dollar. Which of […]
Dollar, S&P 500 and Gold on Volatility Watch as Powell Set to Testify
July 10, 2019 at 04:15AM After a few days of uneasy chop, the markets are due to move back into important fundamental waters with Fed speculation expected through Chairman Powell testimony and […]
Dollar Top Volatility Risk but Trade Potential Takes Discernment
July 10, 2019 at 02:14AM If you were simply looking for ambitious volatility in these quiet markets, you could hardly do better than USDCAD between Powell testimony and BOC. Yet, if you […]
S&P 500 Not Tumbling at Week’s Start is Significant, Market Monetary Policy Focused
July 09, 2019 at 05:34AM Normally, the benchmark US equity indices’ ability to avoid capsizing is not exactly occasion for enthusiasm; but when markets are as troubled as they were last week […]
GBPCAD Sports a Trend That Belies Uncertainty and High Risk of Volatility
July 09, 2019 at 03:22AM Congestion is the status quo whether the focus is equities, FX or some other asset class. Yet, there are always the outliers, and GBPCAD happens to be […]
S&P 500, Dollar and Gold Show What the Key Theme Is Next Week
July 06, 2019 at 03:13AM Typically, the day following a Thursday US market holiday is dead. This past week was the exception with a strong NFPs reaction. What do these strong moves […]
Gold Volatility Builds as NFPs Reminds Us Of the Primary Catalyst
July 06, 2019 at 02:07AM Friday’s volatility in key assets seems to find a common source: the June US employment report. There may be considerable volatility potential for many assets, but Gold […]
Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Records Before Holiday, EURUSD Looks Out to NFPs
July 04, 2019 at 04:45AM Despite the known drain on liquidity, the US indices took the opportunity of thin markets to leverage record highs for S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq. EURUSD meanwhile […]
AUDCAD Primed For Break with Fewer Thematic Restrictions
July 04, 2019 at 02:40AM There are plenty of appealing charts across the FX market, but an attachment to confounding thematic fundamental risk trips many of these opportunities up. AUDCAD is one […]
Opportunity for S&P 500 Rally to Record, Dollar Recovery Facing Liquidity Wall
July 03, 2019 at 04:38AM We are marching towards the distortion of Thursday’s holiday liquidity conditions. Yet, in the meantime, there is plenty on the docket and in the collective conscious to […]
USDCAD May Be Major Most Capable of Overcoming Holiday Trade
July 03, 2019 at 03:48AM While the fundamental engine continues to turn, liquidity will soon curb progress for the markets. Few individual assets – much less markets – have any hope of […]
An S&P 500 Record High Not Worth Trusting, A Dollar Recovery More Likely to Stall
July 02, 2019 at 06:08AM We start the new week/month/quarter with a mixed perspective. On the one hand, there is a favorable interpretation of the G-20 summit, but that curbs Fed cut […]
USDCHF May be the Best Dollar Bullish Option for Trade War Status Quo
July 02, 2019 at 02:09AM The G-20 summit managed to render a ‘status quo’ scenario for trade wars, yet we are unlikely to hold the course in the Dollar that we’ve come […]
Dollar, Dow, Gold a Cross Roads of G-20, Holiday Trade, Pent Up Anxiety
June 29, 2019 at 05:29AM Reversals and breakouts seem to be developing hand-in-hand across a variety of financial benchmarks. Will the G20, growth or NFPs set markets in motion or do we […]
EURGBP Has Matched a Record Weekly Rally as Resistance Approaches, Now What?
June 29, 2019 at 12:52AM There aren’t many opportunities in the market that are reliably divorced from complicated systemic matters like trade wars. EURGBP certainly avoids that them and it has a […]
EURUSD and Risk Asset Wind Up Before G-20 Summit
June 28, 2019 at 04:12AM The Dollar has wavered in the middle of a breakdown and risk trends have lost traction immediately after the S&P 500 has set a record high. This […]
S&P 500 and Dow Extreme Quiet vs Record Highs, Dollar Continues Dive
June 26, 2019 at 04:49AM An unmistakable shift has occurred in risk-dependent assets and even key benchmarks outside of this standard current. Is a full-blown US equity and Dollar reversal underway or […]
S&P 500 and Dow Extreme Quiet vs Record Highs, Dollar Continues Dive
June 25, 2019 at 03:16AM The flush of enthusiasm following in the wake of the Fed decision has diminished over the weekend. Anticipation for the G-20 is high, but between high tides […]
Dollar’s Biggest Weekly Drop in 16 Months Breaks Year-Long Bull Trend
June 23, 2019 at 10:00AM The Dollar dove this past week following a high-profile Fed rate decision with momentum hitting speeds last seen in February 2018. In the process, it seems key […]
A Dollar Reversal and S&P 500 Nonplussed at Record High Ahead of G20 Summit
June 22, 2019 at 03:25AM The S&P 500 earned its record high this past week, but apparently it wasn’t a move inherently tooled for follow through. Meanwhile, the Dollar ended the week […]
S&P 500 Record High Less Convincing Against Gold’s Surge, Yields Plunge
June 21, 2019 at 03:49AM With the biggest bullish gap on an open since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 moved to a record high. Have we made the transition […]
Dollar Slides and S&P 500 Gains Despite Fed Hitting Rate Cut Forecasts
June 20, 2019 at 04:30AM The Fed has refused the market’s assumption of full support at a particularly vulnerable time for stretched speculators. Thankfully for them, their skepticism over central bank resiliency […]
EURUSD Dropping After a Failed Breakout, Euro Stretched Across Board
June 15, 2019 at 05:00AM The Euro put in for a notable retreat through the second half of last week, but its reversal is not as intense as EURUSD may insinuate. Will […]
Dollar Holds Off Collapse on GDP Hopes Which the Fed Will Make or Break
June 15, 2019 at 01:08AM The global markets are drawing in their breath in anticipation of the upcoming Fed rate decision. With a unmistakable fade in growth with trade wars, the markets […]
Will EURUSD Draw Some of the Trade War Winds from the Dow?
June 14, 2019 at 03:49AM Trade wars are once again at the top of the headlines – and not as a backdrop for bulls to take advantage. Will Trump ease off the […]
Dow Takes a Further Step Towards Reversal, EURUSD Reverses from 200 DMA
June 13, 2019 at 03:57AM The Dow and S&P 500 – as benchmarks for risk trends – are making slow steps towards general reversals. With sentiment craving charge for further lift and […]
Dow Posts First Drop in 7 Trading Days, Trump Stirs Trade War Fears
June 12, 2019 at 03:27AM The risk appetite charge has officially flagged this past session. With the Dow breaking its bullish streak well short of record highs, the questionable source of confidence […]
Both Dow and Peso Jump on US-Mexico Deal, But Can They Continue?
June 11, 2019 at 03:34AM An emergent front on the global trade war has de-escalated before it could amplify the crisis, but is a US-Mexico deal fundamental traction enough to extend Fed […]
Dow Appetite for Record, Dollar Breakdown Threat, Gold Surge Fueled by Fed
June 08, 2019 at 04:42AM The Dow and fellow US equity indices surged through the close of this past week as Fed rate cut expectations jumped and before news of a US-Mexico […]
Gold Prices Restore Full Blown Bull Trend or Mark a Top After 8 Day Rally?
June 07, 2019 at 11:00PM Gold has closed out an 8-day advance through Friday to secure the best week’s rally in three years. Now the real technical decision as the market faces […]
Dollar Tests Year-Long Trend and S&P 500 Extends Divergence Ahead of NFPs
June 07, 2019 at 03:02AM The Dow climbed this past session, but there is plenty of reason to question the risk appetite implications associated with the move. Meanwhile, the Greenback is eagerly […]
Dow Overtakes 200 Day Average as Emerging Markets and Yields Extend Slide
June 06, 2019 at 03:59AM The benchmark US indices have short-circuited the reversal patterns that they so publicly triggered this past week. Yet, the lack of commitment to this shift amid growth […]
S&P 500, Dow Return to Technical Tipping Point on Fed Support
June 05, 2019 at 03:27AM Fed Chairman Powell raised a familiar speculative lightning rod Tuesday to leverage a technical incursion on a key Dow level. Is there enough enthusiasm to carry us […]
The Dollar and Nasdaq Tumble Should Seriously Concern Traders
June 04, 2019 at 02:41AM Risk aversion has clearly carried over from last week, but more than that, the systemic complications plaguing the Dollar and the financial system in general seem to […]
