December 12, 2019 at 03:30AM The Fed held its benchmark rate – at a premium to global counterparts – and still projects an eventual return to hikes, so why did the Dollar […]
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EURUSD Forecast Top Risk Between Fed and ECB, Pound and AUDUSD Risk Volatility
December 09, 2019 at 01:30PM There are a few, high-profile and high-potential themes meeting critical events or deadlines over the coming week. With events like the Fed and ECB rate decision as […]
EURUSD Forecast Top Risk Between Fed and ECB, Pound and AUDUSD Risk Volatility
December 08, 2019 at 04:00PM There are a few, high-profile and high-potential themes meeting critical events or deadlines over the coming week. With events like the Fed and ECB rate decision as […]
EURUSD Forecast Top Risk Between Fed and ECB, Pound and AUDUSD Risk Volatility
December 08, 2019 at 04:00PM There are a few, high-profile and high-potential themes meeting critical events or deadlines over the coming week. With events like the Fed and ECB rate decision as […]
Dow Charges to Record While Dollar, Gold, Oil, FX Majors Embrace Ranges
November 18, 2019 at 01:30PM We are heading into a new trading week with some extreme divergence in benchmark assets. On the one hand, we have the Dow leading US indices to […]
Dow Charges to Record While Dollar, Gold, Oil, FX Majors Embrace Ranges
November 17, 2019 at 04:00PM We are heading into a new trading week with some extreme divergence in benchmark assets. On the one hand, we have the Dow leading US indices to […]
Trading Forecast: Dollar Rally Conflicts with Dow’s on Trade Wars, Watch Euro, Pound and Kiwi Ahead
November 11, 2019 at 01:30PM There was an unmistakable extension of the maligned risk appetite trend through this past week. The US-China trade war headlines will likely carry the speculative focus moving […]
Trading Forecast: Dollar Rally Conflicts with Dow’s on Trade Wars, Watch Euro, Pound and Kiwi Ahead
November 10, 2019 at 04:00PM There was an unmistakable extension of the maligned risk appetite trend through this past week. The US-China trade war headlines will likely carry the speculative focus moving […]
Has the S&P 500’s Forecast Recharged Risk Appetite Across the Financial System?
November 04, 2019 at 01:30PM There were a few fundamental highlights this past week such as the news that the US and China may have reached an agreement in principle for its […]
Has the S&P 500’s Forecast Recharged Risk Appetite Across the Financial System?
November 03, 2019 at 01:00PM here were a few fundamental highlights this past week such as the news that the US and China may have reached an agreement in principle for its […]
Dollar, Pound, Dow – Prepare for Volatility with FOMC, GDP, More
October 28, 2019 at 12:30PM Though there was some moderate lift in risk-leaning assets and even a few technical milestones marked this past week, the markets have not yet committed to a […]
Dollar, Pound, Dow – Prepare for Volatility with FOMC, GDP, More
October 27, 2019 at 01:00PM Though there was some moderate lift in risk-leaning assets and even a few technical milestones marked this past week, the markets have not yet committed to a […]
Where To With Recession Fears, Trade Wars and Brexit In the Headlines?
October 21, 2019 at 01:30PM Risk trends have held up well this past week despite a constant battering from recession fears and the growing concerns that trade war traction is slipping. With […]
Where To With Recession Fears, Trade Wars and Brexit In the Headlines?
October 20, 2019 at 02:00PM Risk trends have held up well this past week despite a constant battering from recession fears and the growing concerns that trade war traction is slipping. With […]
Will Risk Trends Extend Charge and EURUSD Reverse with Trade War News?
October 14, 2019 at 01:30PM This past week reflected a strong charge in risk-leaning assets like the Dow under the auspices of an impending US-China trade deal. Progress was found between these […]
Will Risk Trends Extend Charge and EURUSD Reverse with Trade War News?
October 13, 2019 at 02:00PM This past week reflected a strong charge in risk-leaning assets like the Dow under the auspices of an impending US-China trade deal. Progress was found between these […]
Dollar 4Q Forecast: US Dollar May Require Systemic Shock to Secure a Direction
October 05, 2019 at 02:00PM The Dollar is facing a volatile backdrop of competing fundamental themes – a state that has surprisingly robbed the currency of its inertia. Which of these issues […]
Crude Oil Prices Weigh Short-Term Vs Long-Term Breakout
September 15, 2019 at 03:00AM US crude oil prices put in for their biggest one-week drop since mid-July through Friday but that doesn’t translate into much progress in trend terms. A near-term […]
Fed Decision Will Leverage Dollar, Risk and Growth Outlook Equally
September 14, 2019 at 01:19AM This past week ends with a broad and recently-intense risk appetite bid with many benchmarks at resistance – and the Dow a breath from record highs. Fundamentals […]
US Dollar Faces High Volatility but Unpredictable Direction with Fed Decision
September 13, 2019 at 10:00AM The Dollar will find itself burdened with anticipation through the first half of this coming week for an explosion over the second half of the period. No […]
An Extreme EURUSD Response to ECB but a Reversal Before US Sentiment, Fed?
September 13, 2019 at 04:13AM Despite a sharp escalation of dovish policy by the ECB, the Euro still managed a bounce that looks like a technical reversal for EURUSD. Is this a […]
Euro Scenarios for ECB Decision, Implications for Dollar and Trump
September 12, 2019 at 04:07AM There is a distinct skew in speculation over the upcoming ECB rate decision which could position opportunities on certain Euro crosses. Yet, far more important is the […]
EURUSD Isn’t the Only Market Facing the Calm Before the ECB Storm
September 11, 2019 at 05:01AM There is plenty of concern to go around over the course of trade wars and Google searches for ‘recession’ clearly keeps core growth front and center. Yet, […]
Glimmer of Hope on Trade Wars, Recession, and Monetary Policy Capitulation?
September 11, 2019 at 01:00AM Top fundamental influence this week will shift from constant recession and trade war fears towards monetary policy thanks to a very particular event. Continue Reading… From: John […]
Dollar Starts Week with Strong Bullish Gap but Limited Hope for Trend Now
September 10, 2019 at 02:54AM We entered the new trading week with a drift higher in the S&P 500 as a baseline for sentiment while the Dollar surged with a gap that […]
Dollar, S&P 500 and Pound Forge Difficult Trends, ECB a Global Event
September 07, 2019 at 04:02AM Key fundamentals themes in trade wars and recession fears have ebbed, allowing for the Dollar to flag and S&P 500 make another reach towards record highs. Will […]
S&P 500 Breakout and GBPUSD Rally That Should Draw Your Scrutiny
September 06, 2019 at 05:00AM With some questionable motivation through trade war developments, the S&P 500 has put in for a provocative break before Friday NFPs. Meanwhile, temptation of a GBPUSD reversal […]
Dollar Tumbles, Pound Rallies and S&P 500 Ready for a Break
September 05, 2019 at 04:08AM Liquidity was starting to grab some traction for market movement this past session. The Dollar took a dive as its fundamental mix was called to question, Brexit […]
S&P 500, Dollar, Pound Volatility Return Alongside September Liquidity
September 04, 2019 at 03:47AM US liquidity filled out this past session as traders came back from a long holiday weekend. Upon their return, they were met with the same heavy fundamental […]
Australian Dollar Slides to Decade Lows – How Far and Fast Can it Drop?
August 31, 2019 at 03:00PM The Australian Dollar continued its pained slide versus the Greenback this past week to notch a fifth consecutive weekly drop and station AUDUSD at its lowest level […]
EURUSD Tumbles to Close Week and Trump Rankles, Volatility to Return
August 31, 2019 at 07:48AM We are heading out of what is historically one of the quietest trading periods of the year into what is statistically the most active. In the meantime, […]
Will the S&P 500 Attempted a Break or EURUSD Multi-Year Lows Before Weekend?
August 30, 2019 at 03:22AM There are some provocative technical charts – like the S&P 500 range and Dollar proximity to highs – facing off against productive fundamental themes. Yet, the appeal […]
No Dollar Assurances in Treasury Downplaying Intervention, Absorbing Headlines for Later
August 29, 2019 at 04:55AM Trade wars threaten to escalate to new territory as the US government references exchange rate intervention – suggesting it is net yet ready to go that route. […]
S&P 500 Has Strong Range Hold Despite Elevated VIX and Yield Curve Headlines
August 28, 2019 at 04:48AM The headlines were finally clear of trade war updates, but that didn’t mean fundamentals were fully off the menu. Yield curve inversion continues to build recession fear, […]
S&P 500’s Questionable Save from Breakdown, USDCNH and Yield Curve Key Again
August 27, 2019 at 04:18AM The Jackson Hole Symposium and G-7 summit’s passed without offering any genuine reason for optimism, yet liquidity may buy speculative bulls more time before the S&P 500 […]
Dow and Dollar May Suppress Jackson Hole, G-7 Volatility for Monday Jump
August 23, 2019 at 04:51AM The Jackson Hole Symposium is already proving a market-worthy event for is heavy fundamental implications, but speculative commitment is still elusive. Will we find that right of […]
Dollar Traders Heads Up: Jackson Hole and Global PMIs Threaten to Detonate Strained Markets
August 22, 2019 at 03:50AM The FOMC minutes served up a jolt to the fragile balance between monetary policy and risk trends this past session, but anticipation for the upcoming PMI run […]
Neither Dollar Nor S&P 500 Fazed by Trump Remarks Recession May be Necessary
August 21, 2019 at 04:07AM President Trump has graduated beyond the saying that ‘trade wars are good and easy to win’. Flirting with an unsteady market, he signaled Tuesday that to inflict […]
S&P 500 Third Biggest Bullish Gap This Year Doesn’t Resolve Key Themes or Fear
August 20, 2019 at 03:00AM Risk assets opened the week with an impressive gap higher, but it would be more than premature to assign conviction to this bounce. With lingering concerns and […]
Fundamental Trading Forecast: Trade Wars, Recession, Fed Trouble – The Fed Symposium’s Pick
August 19, 2019 at 10:24PM The traditional economic docket for high-level data releases this week is fairly light, but that doesn’t account for the deepening concern around three critical fundamental themes. Continue […]
Euro Breakdown Potential Not as Extreme as EURUSD May Propose
August 17, 2019 at 05:00AM Looking to the world’s most liquid currency cross – EURUSD – we find the FX market on the verge of a technical tidal change with multi-year lows […]
Will Dow and EURUSD Range Or Break as Trade War and Recession Fears Linger?
August 17, 2019 at 02:50AM We are due scheduled fundamental catalysts to the most pressing fundamental themes for the global markets, while speculative fear threatens its own indigestion. Is market-based recession fear […]
Gold Prices Are the Best Haven to Yield Curve-Based Recession Fears
August 16, 2019 at 04:45AM The inverted US yield curve is only one point of concern in the state of global government bond yields. Recession risks are raising concerns over the state […]
S&P 500 Outlook Steadies Despite Recession Fears, EURUSD Tumble Not a Data Move
August 16, 2019 at 02:32AM Risk assets managed to pullback from the brink of self-reinforcing selling this past session, though the fundamental spark that set the tumble into motion in the first […]
Dow Forecast Links to Recession Fears Bubbling in Bonds and Yield Curve
August 15, 2019 at 02:34AM The US yield curve was this past session’s top theme amongst traders which is troubling given the implications it carries for fears of a recession and association […]
Dow and Yuan Rally, Yen and Gold Tumble as Trump Stirs Trade Wars Again
August 14, 2019 at 03:24AM Finally, a rebound in risk assets this past session. The White House backed off on its most aggressive trade wars escalation to date Tuesday, but is this […]
S&P 500 Retreats and VIX Rises as Trade War Fears Remain Front and Center
August 13, 2019 at 03:19AM Risk benchmarks opened to another week with a gap lower, but this time there was a USDCNH systemic break to base fear around. It seems that sentiment […]
Fundamental Trading Forecast – Would Trump Act to Devalue the Dollar in Trade Wars?
August 13, 2019 at 12:19AM If we are looking for any hidden threats to global market stability as this week progresses, the first place to keep tabs remains the situation with trade […]
Dollar Eases as Trump Maintains Pressure, Trade Wars Vs Seasonal Gravity Ahead
August 10, 2019 at 03:14AM The pull of seasonal liquidity fade is strong, but will it overpower a relentless pressure from the Trump administration to charge volatility? Read on to learn what […]
Gold Prices Charge Multi-Year Highs, Ignore Contrarian Sentiment Signals
August 09, 2019 at 11:00PM There is good reason to doubt many of the tentative trends developing across the financial system in ‘risk’ assets or Dollar pairs as conviction is uneven. But […]
S&P 500 Charges as Complacency Fights Back Trade Wars, Frustrating Trump on Dollar
August 09, 2019 at 03:09AM Trade wars may be still smoking, but the market only deals with what is currently on fire. In the absence of fallout, speculative appetite prevails. Yet, that […]
Traders Shift Weight from Elevated VIX to S&P 500 Trendline
August 08, 2019 at 04:03AM Trade war headlines are starting to lose their drive over risk assets, and speculators are taking notice. Panic may return at any time but the buy-the-dip mentality […]
Doubt that S&P 500 Dip Buying, Monitor Both USDCNH and VIX Closely
August 07, 2019 at 04:02AM Risk aversion has hit a speed gap and speculative appetite has rushed in to take advantage. As broad as the bounce may be, traders should not get […]
Dow and Dollar Tumble as China Let’s Yuan Dive, Escalation Inevitable
August 06, 2019 at 03:15AM Trade wars are escalating and risk trends are suffering. With US-based indices taking a tumble, the seemingly unflappable complacency looks at-risk of collapse. Yet, my true concern […]
Webinar: Fundamental Trading Forecast – Trade Wars Threatens Growth and Overwhelms Central Banks
August 05, 2019 at 09:54PM There is little doubting the top fundamental theme given the state of the global markets to open this new trading week. Trade wars was front and center […]
Dollar Hits a 2-Year High and Then Stumbles – Pause Or True Reversal?
August 04, 2019 at 10:00AM Between headlines of a Fed rate hike and President Trump upping the ante in the US trade war with China, the Dollar would see a bullish breakout […]
Beware a S&P 500 and Dollar Tumble as Trade Wars Escalate
August 03, 2019 at 03:38AM This past week ended in a precious position: the markets were starting to gain traction on a reversal in risk trends and the principal threats were only […]
S&P 500 and Dollar Hit as Trump Escalates Trade Wars Day After Fed Volatility
August 02, 2019 at 06:41AM The market’s attention shifted violently from monetary policy shortcomings and a mild sense of concern over economic health to sheer trade war pain this past session. Traders […]
Key Charts to Watch as Trump Escalates the US-China Trade War
August 01, 2019 at 08:32PM In a session that was recovering from the previous day’s FOMC rate decision with a cut and questions about the future, US President Donald Trump delivered a […]
Fed’s Powell Shakes the Dow and Dollar as Markets Confused on Next Steps
August 01, 2019 at 02:15AM Fed rate decision often leave the markets a little shell-shocked on what the future holds, thanks largely to heavy speculation. After the central bank’s cut this past […]
Fed Focus Takes Over as Dollar and Global Risk Expect at Least a 25bp Cut
July 31, 2019 at 03:15AM The market’s attention is squarely on the Federal Reserve rate decision Wednesday afternoon. Will this holdout of optimism and policy rebalance cave to the speculative pressure of […]
Fed Anticipation Extend’s Longest Dollar Run in Year, Pound Tumbles on Brexit Warning
July 30, 2019 at 04:08AM There is an unease that is easy to spot in the global markets. Risk trends are hampered by anticipation of the Fed decision on Wednesday, but there […]
British Pound Hits Two-Year Low as Speculative Position Also Hits Extreme
July 27, 2019 at 11:00PM After two weeks of consolidation at multi-year lows, GBPUSD would ultimately earn a bearish break on its short-term wedge. It seems another easy shove to a well-worn […]
Dollar Versus Gold Trends as Trump Warns on Trade War, FOMC Decision Approaches
July 27, 2019 at 03:04AM Growth as a driving fundamental wind – particularly for Dollar bulls – has passed with the weekend liquidity drain. A Fed decision and provocative remarks on Trade […]
GBPUSD May Be the Best Major to Highlight a Weak US GDP
July 26, 2019 at 04:17AM The Dollar has considerable potential for volatility resulting from the 2Q US GDP release. However, a bullish build up on the theme, weekend liquidity, FOMC anticipation and […]
EURUSD Round Two Moving Past ECB Onto US GDP
July 26, 2019 at 03:42AM The ECB rate decision proved quite market-moving for EURUSD, but its bearing confounded typical expectations. Will Friday’s US 2Q GDP offer a more direct bearing for the […]
EURUSD and EURCHF In the ECB Rate Decision Crosshairs
July 25, 2019 at 04:55AM The ECB rate decision is leveraged with serious fundamental speculation with EURUSD stationed on the ledge of a three-month range that tips into two-year lows. Yet, if […]
Dollar Run Slows Despite Growth Skew, Euro Readies for the ECB
July 25, 2019 at 04:00AM Is the US truly recession proof should the global economy continue to slow? What would a clearly dovish ECB earn from an already deflated Euro? Continue Reading… […]
Dollar Rallies After IMF’s Growth Upgrade, Pound Steadfast After New PM Announced
July 24, 2019 at 02:46AM The ‘growth’ theme seemed to catch traction earlier than expected this week. With July PMIs and the US 2Q GDP ahead, the IMF decided to downgrade its […]
Pound Awaits New PM, Euro the ECB and Dollar a Distant Fed Decision
July 23, 2019 at 04:54AM On the one hand, there is event risk on the horizon that qualifies as possible inducement of ‘severe volatility’: ECB decision, US GDP, ECB, etc. Then there […]
Australian Dollar: Is This a True Bullish Reversal?
July 20, 2019 at 05:00PM AUDUSD triggered one of the most recognizable reversal patterns in the technical scales this past week: an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. But is this a spark that can […]
Expect More Dollar and Dow Volatility on Fed Speculation, Trade Wars, US GDP
July 20, 2019 at 04:12AM A mere anticipation for Friday’s US 2Q GDP release or isolated Euro response to the ECB rate decision ahead is no longer the easy course to expect […]
EURUSD At the Crossroads of Most Critical Volatility Lines
July 20, 2019 at 02:09AM There are a host of fundamental themes converging over the coming week with a high probability of volatility along each line. It just so happens that most […]
Dollar Tumbles as 50bp Fed Cut Baked In But Beware EURUSD, AUDUSD Trades
July 19, 2019 at 05:47AM Trade wars and growth forecasts continued to form an uneven path for the markets, but speculative drive seems to have taken a significant tug in attention. A […]
S&P 500 Retreat May Accelerate on NFLX, IMF Gives Trump Dollar Ammo
July 18, 2019 at 02:35AM US earnings may once again take the tiller for global sentiment, but this time around it is hitting both systemic fears and general risk appetite. Meanwhile, trade […]
Dow Hits Record High on Most Reserved Activity Since December 2017
July 16, 2019 at 05:26AM Where most of the markets and currencies are struggling to carry a clear move one week to the next, the British Pound proves consistently the exception to […]
Dollar Rallies as Euro and Pound Retreat, Data Versus Systemic Themes
July 17, 2019 at 04:27AM US indices just started to issues technical signals to suggest a more serious turn may catch traction, but a fundamental catalyst is still unsecured. Meanwhile, the FX […]
Dow Hits Record High on Most Reserved Activity Since December 2017
July 16, 2019 at 04:42AM The Dow has posted yet another record high and yet it still manages to offer up no enthusiasm in the anticipation of its higher probability course. Quiet […]
S&P 500 Record High and Gold Builds Breakout Pressure Under Growth, Trade Wars
July 16, 2019 at 03:19AM The S&P 500 notched yet another record high to start this new trading week, but the volume and progress on the day did little to alleviate doubts. […]
Dollar Faces Plenty of Volatility, But Clear Trend is Another Matter…
July 14, 2019 at 05:00AM The Dollar’s recovery attempt came to an abrupt halt this past week following heavily-circulated Fed headlines. Now imbued with greater volatility in news fixation, what can we […]
AUDUSD Preps a Clean Reversal Pattern but Dollar, China GDP Complicate
July 13, 2019 at 04:36AM There is a provocative inverse head-and-shoulders set for AUDUSD. A pattern ubiquitous with charged reversals but conditions and similarly disrupted patterns should throttle our anticipation for more […]
Dow’s Record Highs and Gold’s Congestion Shift from Fed Hopes to Growth, Trade Fears
July 13, 2019 at 04:03AM The markets have made a shrine to the Fed’s dovish policy shift in the form of the Dow’s record highs. Unfortunately for the bulls, this theme […]
Dow Hits a Record High, So Why Didn’t the S&P 500, Nasdaq or Russell 2000?
July 12, 2019 at 05:15AM The Dow hit a record high this past session having cleared 27,000. Taken alone, this would seem a reassuring development, but the uneven performance of other US […]
