2018Feb

FC: GLOBAL MARKETS AND NEWS ROUND-UP / OUTLOOK March 12, 2018 at 07:00AM

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UK seen up 14 / DAX up 74 / CAC up 32 / EStoxx50 up 19

OPEC is breaking down into two camps after more than a year of unity. On one side is Saudi Arabia, which wants oil prices at $70 a barrel or higher, and on the other is Iran, which wants them around $60. The split is driven by differing views over whether $70 a barrel sends U.S. shale companies into a production frenzy that could cause prices to crash.

Britain may soon start to see the beginning of the end of austerity, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer prepares to announce the smallest deficit in a decade during his Spring Statement on Tuesday.

US MARKETS (% move from European close):

Dow 0.60 25335.74

S&P 0.63 2786.57

Nasdaq 0.60 7560.811

VIX -4.13 14.64

The U.S. markets ended the week on a strong note as they climbed steadily over the afternoon to close at the session highs with the Nasdaq posting a new record high. The S&P finished the day up 1.7%, up 0.6% from the European close, while the Nasdaq finished the day up 1.8%. 10 out of 11 S&P sectors ended in the positive led up by the financial, up 2.2%, industrial, up 2.2%, and technology, up 2%, sectors. Meanwhile underperforming the broader market was the telecom, down 0.1%, utility, up 0.3%, and consumer staple, up 0.6%, sectors. Trading volumes on the day were a touch light and just below recent averages.

AFTER HOUR MOVERS:

Nothing of note

DUE TODAY: Qudian

AFTER MARKET:

ADR MOVERS SINCE EUROPEAN CLOSE:

RANDGOLD RESOURCES down 1%

ASIAN MARKETS:

Nikkei 1.65 21824.03

Hang Seng 1.68 31515.59

Shanghai 0.60 3326.84

Australia 0.55 5996.12

Asian markets have started the week on a higher note, as they follow were the U.S. finished last week, with solid gains across the board as HK and Japan led to the upside. Data wise Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY in Feb rose 39.5%, which was down from 48.8% previously.

NOBEL up 30%, PRADA up 15.5%, SAIC up 2.5%, GEELY up 3%, TOYOTA up 2.5%, BRIDGESTONE up 2.5% NEWCREST down 4.5%

M & A:

– EON is said to be in advanced talks to acquire RWE’S INNOGY, may announce deal as early as today. INNOGY confirms 2018 outlook, FY div E1.60

– GKN: MELROSE is said to be likely to increase the value of its bid for GKN by at least 5%, which may add £300m-£400m more to its offer price, Sunday Times reports

– DEUTSCHE BANK plans to raise as much as E1.8Bn in an IPO of its asset-management unit, will offer 40m shares in DWS at E30 to E36 apiece, with the potential sale of a further 10m shares in an overallotment and upsize option

– CAPITA is said to plan £700m sale of assets to cut debt, Sunday Times reports

– RIO TINTO: Indonesia’s PT Adaro Energy plans a joint offer with Owen Hegarty’s EMR Capital for Rio Tinto’s Queensland coal portfolio, AFR reports

– AIR FRANCE-KLM: A consortium consisting of India’s Jet Airways, Air France-KLM and Delta Air Lines is said to have expressed interest in the Indian government’s divestment plans for Air India, Press Trust of India reports

– ZURICH INS buys Travel Ace, Universal in Latin America, financial terms weren’t disclosed

– SENSIRION sets CHf28-CHf36 per share price range for March 22 IPO

– MEDARTIS sets CHf44-CHf54 per share price range for March 23 IPO

COMPANY NEWS:

– ARYZTA 1H rev E1.79Bn, in line, underlying profit E50.9m, says FY 2018 hybrid bond will not be called

– GEA GROUP FY orders E4.75Bn, op Ebitda E564m vs est E581.9m, FY div E0.85 vs est E0.82, sees 2018 rev up 5-6% & op Ebitda margin 12-13%, holds a Capital Markets day

– NOS FY rev E1.56Bn, in line, Ebitda E580.6m, in line, net income E124.1m vs est E122m

– BELIMO FY Ebit CHf92.6m vs est CHf96.8m, net income CHf77.5m vs est CHf78.5m, FY div CHf85 vs est CHf81.92, says research and development costs ”will remain on a high level in relation to sales in order to improve innovative capacity”

– VAT GROUP FY net sales CHf962m vs est CHf666.8m, orders CHf736m, adj Ebitda CHf215m, Ebitda margin +31.1%, net income CHf116m vs est CHf95.1m, FY div CHf4.00 vs est CHf3.87, sees 2018 net sales growth of 15% to 20% & expects Ebitda margin to progress to target of 33% by 2020

– BAVARIAN NORDIC FY rev DKr1.37Bn, in line, Ebit DKr353m vs est DKr368.3m, sees FY rev DKr500m & Ebit loss DKr385m, sees research, development costs at DKk 510m

– ENI wins a contract with Abu Dhabi National Oil for two offshore oil blocks in the Persian Gulf worth $875m. ENI sells 10% stake in Egypt’s Zohr gas project to Mubadala for $934m

– ION BEAM signs 3 new Proton Therapy contracts in UK

– UBS suspended from sponsoring Hong Kong IPO’s for 18 months, also fined HK$119m. UBS sees ‘business as normal’ amid Hong Kong suspension, Reuters reports

– AIRBUS: Turkish Airlines announces deal to purchase a total of 50 wide-body aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, will buy 25 B787-9 aircraft with an optional 5 more from Boeing, and 25 A350-900 aircraft with the option to buy 5 more from Airbus

– TUI CEO says wants to modernize almost half of its aircraft fleet and buy more cruise ships by 2023, Tagesspiegel reports

– RYANAIR is said to be close to accord with Spanish Pilots Union, Expansion reports

– VIVENDI may ask 8 TELECOM ITALIA Directors to resign, Messaggero reports

– ARCADIS nominates Sarah Kuijlaars as CFO, succeeding Renier Vree

– ASTRAZENECA’S Brilinta blood thinner was as safe as clopidogrel, an older, widely used drug, when used to treat patients who received clot-busting therapy for severe heart attacks

– SOFTWARE holds a Capital Markets day

EUROPEAN EX-DIV’S:

MVV Energie €0.90 / Prosegur Cash €0.01432

COMMODITY SNAPSHOT (% move from European Close):

Gold 0.07 1322.95

Copper -0.45 51420

Oil 0.15 61.96

Natural Gas 0.11 2.736

EUR/USD -0.04 1.2317

GBP/USD -0.09 1.3858

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

Goldman pushing CRH & HEIDELBERGCEMENT, initiates both at buy / POSTE ITALIANE raised to overweight from neutral at JPM / LAGARDERE raised to buy from hold at HSBC / CYBG raised to buy from hold at Jefferies / VIRGIN MONEY cut to hold from buy at Jefferies / CAIRN ENERGY raised to overweight from equal weight at MS / JUST EAT cut to sell from hold at Deutsche / AVEVA cut to neutral from buy at Citi

STILL TO COME:

NUMBERS: Biesse / Italgas / Saras / Enav / CIR / Sonaecom / Clarkson / Lenta / Polymetal Int / Sectra / Hutchinson China

UPDATES: Flughafen Zurich

TODAY’S AGENDA:

AGM’s / EGM’s etc: Anima / ALK-Abello / Abertis

ROADSHOWS / INVESTOR DAYS: Wartsila (Roadshow) / Evoinik Ind (Roadshow) / EDP (Roadshow) / Ambu (Roadshow) / Proximus (Roadshow) / Sunrise Comms (Roadshow)

CONFERENCES:

Berenberg Belgian Conf – AGFA-Gevaert

Capital Link International Shipping Offshore Forum – Euronav / Ocean Yield / Deutsche Bank / ABN AMRO Cowen & Co. Health Care Conf – Novartis / Sanofi / Bavarian Nordic / Basilea Pharma

MACRO:

EU: Nothing of note scheduled

US: Monthly Budget Statement

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