2018Jan

FC: GLOBAL MARKETS AND NEWS ROUND-UP / OUTLOOK January 18, 2018 at 06:53AM

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UK seen down 6 / DAX up 45 / CAC up 17 / EStoxx50 up 10

The Fed’s Beige Book showed that the economy continued to expand in all 12 Districts from late Nov through the end of 2017, saying that in most wages increased at a modest pace, and a few Districts observed that firms were raising wages in a broader range of industries and positions since the previous report.

US MARKETS (% move from European close):

Dow Jones 0.67 26115.65

S&P 500 0.48 2802.56

Nasdaq 0.54 7298.281

VIX 0.42 11.91

The U.S. markets rallied to new all-time highs again, trending upwards over the afternoon and recouping yesterday’s losses, to continue the good start to the year. The S&P finished the day up 0.9%, up 0.5% from the European close, while the Nasdaq finished the day up 1%. All 11 S&P sectors ended in the positive led up by the tech, up 1.6%, consumer staple, up 1.2%, and health care, up 1%, sectors. Meanwhile underperforming the broader market was the telecom, up 0.3%, consumer discretionary, up 0.4%, material, up 0.5%, and industrial, up 0.5%, sectors. Trading volumes on the day were again good and above recent averages.

AFTER HOUR MOVERS:

PTC up 7% 1Q results beat est / AES Corp up 5% activist ValueAct takes AES stake / Alcoa Corp down 5% 4Q EPS misses est / SLM Corp down 2.5% FY core EPS forecast misses est

DUE TODAY: BB&T, M&T Bank, PPG Industries, MGIC Investment, Signature Bank NY, KeyCorp, Bank of New York Mellon, Commerce Bancshares, Morgan Stanley

AFTER MARKET: American Express, Atlassian Corp, IBM, People’s United Financial

ADR MOVERS SINCE EUROPEAN CLOSE:

CARREFOUR up 4%, ERICSSON up 2%, NORSK HYDRO up 1.5%, INFINEO up 1.5%, SOC GEN up 1%, VOLKSWAGEN up 1% VODAFONE down 1.5%

ASIAN MARKETS:

Nikkei -0.44 23763.37

Hang Seng 0.21 32050.39

Shanghai Comp 0.55 3463.69

Australia -0.02 6014.57

Asian markets initially opened higher across the board but Japan and Australia have moved lower to be trading either down or around their flat line. Data wise Japan’s industrial production rose 0.5% MoM in Nov, which follows the 0.6% rise previously, YoY it rose 3.6% vs 3.7% previously. While capacity utilization was flat MoM in Nov, following the 0.2% rise previously. China’s cost of new housing accelerated for the first time in 13 months in Dec, as the cost rose 5.3% year on year in Dec in 70 major cities. Australia’s unemployment rate came in at a seasonally adj 5.5% in Dec, vs est 5.4%, which would have been unchanged from Nov. Australia’s economy added 34,700 jobs last month to 12,440,800, vs est 15,100, as full-time employment increased 15,100 to 8,518,900 and part-time employment increased 19,500 to 3,921,800. The participation rate in Dec came in at 65.7%, vs est 65.5%. Australia Consumer Inflation expectations were +3.7% in Jan, vs +3.7% previously. Due to be released soon are China’s GDP, Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment.

BRIDGESTONE up 2.5%, PRADA up 2%

GEELY down 4%, BYD down 2.5%, BRILLIANCE down 2%

M & A:

– WHITBREAD: Activist investor Sachem Head is said to have asked Whitbread to consider breaking out its Costa Coffee chain from its hotels and restaurant businesses, Reuters reports

– GKN: MELROSE bid for GKN is said to get backing from STANDARD LIFE ABERDEEN, a top GKN shareholder

– CARREFOUR is said to propose to sell China unit to Auchan, Alibaba, Les Echos reports …. 4Q results below

– ELTEL says it won’t divest Swedish Aviation & Security Unit, says it will merge it with business unit Sweden

– EURAZEO to invest about E100m to become majority shareholder of C2S

– KION GROUP to acquire a minority stake in EP Equipment, deal expected to be completed in the course of 2018

– IWG mentioned in the UK press after reports surfaced that it had rejected a second takeover bid at £2.5Bn from Brookfield Asset Mgmt

– SPIRE mentioned in the UK press as Jefferies discuss possibility of a lift in the MEDICLINIC takeover target 8.4p to 250p

COMPANY NEWS:

– BHP BILLITON 2Q attributable iron ore output rose 3% to 61.6m tons, broadly in line, copper output 429k tons, metallurgical coal output 10m tons, energy coal output 7m tons, maintains output, cost guidance for iron ore, energy coal, says reduced met coal output guidance to 41-43m tons, says 1H underlying Ebit to include $250m-$350m impairments

– GALENCIA FY sales CHf3.21Bn, in line, confirms FY targets

– GEBERIT FY sales CHf2.91Bn, broadly in line, sees adj op margin of around 28% for 2017

– CARREFOUR 4Q sales up 2.7% to E23.3Bn at constant rates, sees 2017 recurring op income around E2Bn & free cash flow ex items around E950m

– SOITEC 3Q rev E76m, sees FY rev ex-fx up about 25%

– MEYER BURGER FY sales CHf473m, total incoming orders CHf560m, slight reduction of net loss expected for 2017, keeps prior FY 2017 Ebitda guidance at CHf5-15m

– AIRBUS: SAS is aid to pick Airbus over Boeing for new planes, E24 reports

– BARCLAYS are said to be cutting up to 100 Senior Investment Bank staff

– STEINHOFF is said to be in talks for E200m rescue loans, rescue cash from South African lenders would help buy time for them to meet financial obligations, Finance Online reports

– UNIBAIL-RODAMCO gets positive opinion on Westfield deal

– RD SHELL & BP are said to have agreed annual deals to buy Libyan crude

– MDxHealth develops blood test for Prostate Cancer Patients

EUROPEAN EX-DIV’S:

UK:

Ashtead 5.5p / CYBG 1p / Compass Group 22.3p / Consort Medical 7.44p / Micro Focus Int $0.346 / SSE 28.4p / Shaftsbury 8.1p / Superdry 9.3p Total UK 100 Index Points = 3.02

COMMODITY SNAPSHOT (% move from European Close):

Gold -0.54 1328.24

Copper 0.30 53560

Oil 0.31 63.98

Natural Gas -1.28 3.237

EUR/USD -0.22 1.2206

GBP/USD 0.07 1.3839

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

Berenberg pushing CYBG, rates new buy / Berenberg bearish on METRO BANK, rates new sell / SOC GEN cut to neutral from overweight at JPM / EUROPCAR raised to overweight from equal weight at MS / SWEDBANK raised to buy from hold at Jefferies / NORDEA cut to hold from buy at Jefferies / SEB cut to hold from buy at Jefferies / SEGRO raised to hold from underperform at Jefferies / CLINIGEN raised to buy from hold at Berenberg / TEMENOS cut to sell from neutral at Goldman / INFINEON raised to buy from neutral at Goldman / NOKIA cut to neutral from buy at Goldman / UBS raised to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse / INNOGY raised to sector perform from underperform at RBC / BHP BILLITON cut to hold from buy at SBG Securities / GLENCORE raised to buy from hold at SBG Securities / COM HEM cut to hold at buy at Cheuvreux

STILL TO COME:

NUMBERS: Chemring / Avanza Bank

UPDATES: AB Foods / Whitbread / Halfords / Royal Mail / Experian / William Hill / Evraz

TODAY’S AGENDA:

AGM’s / EGM’s etc: EVN / IGD SIIQ

ROADSHOWS / INVESTOR DAYS: Ocado (Business Update Call) / Poste Italiane (Business Update Call) / Inombiliaria Colonial Socimi (Business Update Call) /

CONFERENCES:

Deutsche Bank CEEMEA Conf – Etalon

ACI Future of Polyolefins Summit – Renault / Neste BNP Paribas High Yield and Leveraged Finance Conf – Gestamp Automocion / Senvion Needham & Co. Growth Conf – ASM Int / BE Semiconductor Octavian Flims Seminar – Clariant

MACRO:

EU: Nothing of note scheduled

US: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

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